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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd