Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.